I've known it was coming for some time now. I longed for it. I almost prayed for it. I had a slight inkling something might be in the works when the Ass Invader made a little too-smarmy remark to Mackey ('Spend your last few hours however you want, Detective'), and as soon as Pezuela handed him the envelope, I knew what was in it.

THE INCIDENT.

Before I get into all that, a couple of quick 'hmmmmms'...

- I swear the Armenians already knew that the Strike Team were the ones who jacked the Money Train. Like I'd mentioned before, their treasury mole fed the Armenians the whole teams' addresses. That was why Vic killed Margos; to send a message to the Armenians that it was game over. Since S3, they'd been laying low, and Rehzian said a few episodes ago that the out-of-towners were around 'to teach our American-born some' blah blah blah...

- TINA'S ASS: Really, I could go on for paragraphs and paragraphs, but let me just sit here and think about it for a few minutes......

Alright, anyway, back to Aceveda's upcoming role as The Man Who Saved Mackey. It's so beautiful. One of the few people who saw through all of Mackey's deception, and now he's going to have to be the one to save him.

I've been longing for this moment ever since he made his S4 deal with Antwon Mitchell to kill Juan Lazano and save his own career. I just KNEW it would come back to haunt him, but I thought for sure that Mackey (after Aceveda's snide remark) might INTENTIONALLY seek out Lazano's old girlfriend, instead of happening to stumble onto it in the course of some other investigation. But this way of stumbling onto it was so much better. Now I see why this Pezuela cat is so plugged in to the Ass Invader (no pun intended). And it seems like Mackey's going to stop digging around, which is kind of a shame; I'd like to have seen what the Romero/Pezuela/San Marcos connection was all about.

But the hell with it, if it means Aceveda is going to have to squirm his way into keeping Mackey on the force.

In the meantime, Shane is, in his own words, 'going deeper into the belly of the Armenian beast than I ever meant to be,' and by the looks of the previews, it's going to cost him bigtime. Since the Armenians apparently didn't know [for SURE] who heisted the Money Train, Shane just punched their tickets, if Diro has anything to say about it.

My guess is she's going to go all nutsack-choppy again without getting all the info first, and maybe she's going to whack Hiatt...? Possibly Julian? With his backstory, it would make for a particularly horrifying and tragic end, him dying with his sack in his mouth, a sort of sick, twisted (and unintentional) reminder of his past.

Sorry, I don't mean to gloat, but I just can't get over having predicted the return of The Incident. It was a little easier to guess that Shane would make his confession to Mara, but as soon as things started going wrong with the comptroller, I got to thinking about the limited number of ways Mackey could save his job.

So here's my question: does Aceveda know his boy Pezuela has the picture? Or is this going to come as a complete and total surprise, as it did to Mackey? Another question: does Pezuela know it's Lazano's dick in Our Fair City Councilman's craw? That would connect a looooootta dots for Mackey ('...this whole weird Juan-Aceveda-Antwon triangle...' [S4]). And not that he could or would, but knowing it was Lazano would, legally speaking, mean Aceveda's guilty of conspiracy to commit murder, although with no datestamp on the picture, there'd be no way to prove it happened before Lazano went to prison or got killed. Aceveda might have been suckin' dicks last WEEK, for all Mackey knows!

Anyway, what seemed at first (to me, at least) to be a bit of a coasting-in-neutral season has kicked into high gear and is shaping up to be another ass-kicking season finale where A) Mackey finally gets to stick it to his old boss, B) Shane kidnaps Vic's FAMILY (?!) and...

C) I don't know about you, but Billings HAS to get some payback for the stunt he pulled tonight. Not only was it completely junior-high-Valley-girl bullshit ridiculousness, but he clearly schemed this up beforehand, to purposely humiliate Dutch and hit him in the one spot where it really hurts. The shot of Hiatt catching [what appeared, to HIM, to be] Dutch playing Peeping Tom through the window was priceless. I can only IMAGINE their next conversation. If the Dutchman ever finds out it was Billings' doing, I think that might be the straw that breaks the camel's back. It may be time for Det. Holland Waggenbach to fly right off the handle.

Maybe more after the midnight showing...

I F*CKING KNEW IT!!! AGAIN!!!!!!

- This Armenian lady, Diro Kesakhian, seems a little unhinged, talking to her dad about how 'he needs to finish his English lessons,' when she can damn well see his ass in a COMA... although she's not so disconnected that she can't order three guys' nuts chopped off. Speaking of hacking, Shane had one of the night's funniest lanes (among MANY funny lines) with: 'Just because no one's gettin' their feet chopped off doesn't mean the Armenian mob's gettin' into the chamber of commerce.'

- Speaking of humor, last night was a gold mine. We had 1) 'I'll be right back with some mug books... and a Snapple,' when Shane's hooker informant was talking about her golden-shower client, 2) the Mexican kid who was a little too proud of having recently smashed his 15-year-old girlfriend and 3) it was just too funny listening to all the ladies prattle on about the replica purses. Finding out about them made the Korean lady's insistence to Dutch and Billings about leaving ("You no have warrant? You go.") that much funnier, although I did think for a minute that Corinne, Danny and Tina were about to be the 'upscale ladies in a shitty part of town' that Billings was warning Claudette about earlier. Now that I think abhout it, though, everyone but Corinne was probably strapped, so...

- TOO-CONVENIENT PLOT MECHANISM: How in the hell did the Strike Team know EXACTLY the route that the Salvadoran gun shop robbers were going to take leaving the scene of the crime? There's no way they just HAPPENED to turn the corner into a checkpoint, with Shane there waiting for them to bail and steal a car. That whole thing came together a little TOO brilliantly for me. Because let's say Mackey and Hiatt DID know the Salvadorans' route; what did they tell Danny the 'routine checkpoint' was for? It just seemed a little too convenient for me, is all.

- Santi and the ByzLats know about the Salvadoran informer, which means the Ass Invader blew it AGAIN by telling secure intel to his developer buddy, who's the only person left that could have told the Mexican gangs about Hernan. He just can't stop making mistakes when it comes to his political career and his old precint. I long for the day that he finally gets his...

- Speaking of Hernan, it appears as though, like Vic said, '[He's] all the way in now,' having chopped up and disposed of a body for the Salvadoran jefes. Now he's on a plane to El Salvador, so who knows what his role in all this is about to be? But the Strike Team's best lead into the San Marcos murders just skipped the country. That only leaves one person who's plugged in at that level: Aceveda's pal. I like where that might lead...

Well, people who have been posting about how the San Marcos storyline bores them and how they're confused by all the Hernan stuff aren't going to be big fans of tonight's episode.

I need to watch it again at midnight before I really get into it, but the thing that jumps out at me immediately is Shane's awfully quick rise to head of the Armenian mob. For being such a tightly-run ship in S3, these guys seem pretty damned disorganized at the moment. The boss is in a coma, his daughter is trying to steer the ship, and there's definitely no shortage of minor mutinies brewing.

Enter.... Cletus Van Damme? Apparently so. By trying to talk some sense into this Armenian mob daughter, he appears to be letting her talk HIM into being her new.... well, her new what? Bodyguard? Consiglieri? Or does she just want to use him to get at the rest of the people that ripped off the money train?

Regardless, his motive is what's confusing me. I thought he got with the Armenians to secure a place for his 'document.' Then he was sort of freelancing, helping the daughter with robberies at an Armenian-owned apartment building. Now he's hopping right into bed (figuratively, for the time being) with the princess of the family. Isn't there enough heat on him already?

It's almost enough to make me rethink my theory that Shane's going to die by Ronnie's hands - it's hard to believe the old-world Armenian might is going to be happy to find their stateside jefe in direct contact with the LAPD, regardless of how crooked he is. And Cletus damn sure ain't Armenian.

Although Ronnie was pretty pissed tonight; understandably. 'Writing down everything we've done, holding it over our heads, that's not beef?!' No doubt, Ronnie.

Not to mention, if the Armenians DO have hold of it, and they happen to read it, THEY can hold it over SHANE's head and make him do whatever THEY want. He's got NOOOOO leverage on them.

Hiatt stepped up bigtime tonight, telling Mackey that there's not gonna be an appeal hearing. I'm not sure what that means, but it sure seems as though Hiatt is impressed with Vic and wants him around. I mean, if you don't know about the whole Terry mess, Mackey looks to Hiatt like he probably does to everyone else in the Barn (with the exception of Dutch and Claudette): a tough-guy cop who sets the standard for the rest of them, doesn't take any shit and gets it done.

More later, most likely...

So I've read a lot of postings from people who think Shane is going to get killed by the Armenian mob because [and there are several permutations of this] 'they're going to find out he was in on the money train robbery.'

I'm not so sure, though.

If I recall correctly, the Armenians already KNEW that the Strike Team had made off with their cash. When they're dealing with one of the Armenian henchmen, Goma, in S3, at one point when he's offering them Margos's deal to protect their drug shipment in exchange for calling off the bloodshed, he remarks something like, 'You've set us back, big time.' Right off the top of my head, I can't remember specifically if he's referring to the Strike Team busting them for the heroin or some other reason. But I'm almost positive it was a reference to how much the money train robbery had set them (the mob) back.

Besides, if the Armenians didn't know about the Strike Team's involvement, even Cletus Van Damme wouldn't be so stupid as to invite himself into their inner circle. Surely they'd recognize his name (on the card he gave the baker) from the treasury mole's list, and they'd damn sure have a question or two. Shane even says, to the guy who mentions they haven't had a relationship with cops for some time now: 'Yeah well, choppin' people's feet off will do that.'

I'm sticking with my internal theory: that Ronnie is going to eventually end up killing Shane, or they'll both die somehow, and Vic will be the only original Strike Teamer left, alone to face the prospect of losing his job or working with a completely new Strike Team (there IS another season coming, right? the last one??).

I'm still curious as to how this whole Romero storyline is going to shake out. I take back my ridiculous guess that Aceveda was somehow involved. I just hope the strings are being pulled way high, that's all. It'd be nice to see Mackey dive back into dirty poli-tricks and scheme his job back.

Also, is Hernan dead? If so, how? Either Mackey made a mistake in letting the Mexican ByzLatz' head, Santi, use his throwaway phone (although Santi has no idea who Hernan is, so even if he were to scroll through the latest calls, it's not like he'd recognize a Salvadoran banger's phone number. I doubt they chat over the phone much), or Aceveda's developer buddy gave Hernan up to keep the peace.

By the way, Ass Invader, way to be a total dumbass and potentially compromise a federal undercover investigation. First of all, Wyms shouldn't have TOLD him about Hernan (although she didn't use his name), but he DEFinitely should not have told a regular-ass citizen. I understand that Wyms only told him to keep him from killing the gang sweep, and he only told his boy to get him on board selling it to the Latino community, but c'mon... this could blow back on him badly in all KINDS of ways: from the feds, from Mackey if he finds out, from Wyms especially.

Finally, liked Mackey's 'Eh, Godspeed' remark when Julian tackled Santi over the hood of a car. Julien seems to be fitting in well, chipping in and learning the streets well (recall, it was his idea to cast a wide net around Hernan to protect his cover).

HOLDONGAWDAMMIT, I JUST THOUGHT OF SOMETHING: What if the Armenians are just drawing Shane in, luring him into a false sense of confidence so that they can get their revenge for the money train after all? My man BlackNapalm mentioned that ol' Cletus can't work his own schemes for shit, for the most part. Maybe the Armenians are gonna try and use him to get to the rest of the Strike Team. Hmmmmm....

Well, technically speaking, I guess it's not a return. He's been pretty gawddamn evil ever since he eviscerated Lem from the waist down.

But tonight is the first night where we actually see Evil Vice Shane coming back out, getting into bed with all the wrong people. It's pretty hard to believe that he'd jump into bed with the Armenian mob, the group that tried to have them all killed, and who [I'd think] would still be pretty steamed at the Strike Team for having killed Margos Dezirian back in season three.

But no, there's Cletus, shaking down a gas station (I like that they used the gas racket, that's something I hadn't thought about, but definitely something they'd be into), handcuffing the owner to his own counter and kicking him in the back.

This was a tradeoff, naturally. The Armenians gain another stop on their grifted-gas route, and Shane, I'm guessing, secures a 'warm, safe place' for his Anna-Nicole-Smith-like tell-all document, where he buries himself along with the entire Strike Team just to cover his own ass.

What a shithead.

This is just the most pussified way to cover your ass. Shane is clearly no longer interested in trying to BE Vic. He's no longer impressed with Vic's quick thinking and political calculating. In fact, it seems to me like he's gonna try and get Ronnie to turn on Vic next week ("When you get tired of Vic holdin' your leash, give me a call.")

Speaking of which, I thought Ronnie was about to go kill Shane himself when Vic told him Shane had basically confessed. "Where is he right now?" was all he said, with a serious ice grill. I like it.

Shane and Ronnie meeting without Vic, also supports my theory that Ronnie is going to kill Shane or, more specifically, they're going to kill each other, and Vic is going to be the only Strike Teamer left (of the original four, that is).

THE BIG QUESTION IS: What's the deal with this one-armed Mexican bureaucrat who's floating around L.A. with $230,000 in a suitcase? All of the political machinations that have cropped up around this have me very interested, especially since it was the city COMPTROLLER (money man) that Vic helped out last week. What if the whole thing is all wrapped together somehow? If Mackey cracks that case, he'd probably have his job back for sure.

Mara was back in trailer-park mode tonight, saying dumb things and doing dumb things. True, Shane did leave her alone with no message or sign that he was alright for 24 hours, but still, how could she think it would be a good idea to go to the Barn looking for him, let alone MENTION TO VIC that she knows Shane killed Lem? What a dolt. The topper, however, was bringing her son to the Barn with her, so that Vic could throw a subtle threat their way, all the while playing dumb. Beautiful. She deserves it, anyway.

All in all, though, I didn't find myself twitching with anticipation and talking to myself about what might happen next, which is usually the case with 'The Shield.' This was the most 'mid-season' mid-season episode I think I've seen on this show: lots of little plot developments, but nothing that left me salivating for next week.

The more I think about it now, though, Shane's plan is seeming more and more smart. He knows Vic's not going to directly implicate him: he can't, he's got too much to lose. But he could nudge Dutch in the right direction. By giving incriminating evidence over to the Armenians, Shane's ensuring Mackey won't even do THAT. Because even if he were to get the drop on Shane, all that information is still out there, and not only could the Armenians drop it on IAD's doorstep, they could also put serious teeth in the now-defunct money train investigation: tell about how their treasury mole got the Strike Team's info because they stole the MONEY, not because they were cracking down on the MOB.

Also, it was a little disappointing that Vic didn't follow through on his threat that if he saw Shane again, he'd kill him. All he could manage was 'Don't come to this house again.' Kinda weak. In fact, I thought the episode ended on kind of a weak note, with Mackey just sitting there, stewing silently in all of the brutality he and the team have sown over the years.

I thought the episode should have ended with Cletus saying 'Just think of all the terrible, brutal things we've done. It's hard, isn't it? There's so many," and then just driving off. Flash to Vic opening the envelope and looking at the top three sheets, labeled 'Armenian money train,' 'Tio Osmond,' and 'Terry Crowley.' Quick shot of his face. Roll credits.

But how are Shane and Vic possibly going to work together for another two weeks when Shane's request for paid leave gets denied? Perhaps they just won't be able to take it at one point and they'll get into a shouting match in front of everyone about all the things they've done....

OK, I guess I AM excited for next week ha ha ha.